United States presidential election, 1992 Totally Explained

Everything about United States Presidential Election 1992 totally explained

The United States presidential elections of 1992 featured a battle between incumbent President, Republican George Bush; Democrat Bill Clinton, the governor of Arkansas; and independent candidate Ross Perot, a Texas businessman. Bush had alienated much of his conservative base by breaking his 1988 campaign against raising taxes, the economy had sunk into recession, and the president's perceived best strength, foreign policy, was regarded as much less important following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the relatively peaceful climate in the Middle East following the defeat of Iraq in the First Gulf War.

Nominations

Republican nomination

See also: 1992 Republican presidential primaries, 1992 Republican National Convention Republican candidates

Patrick J. Buchanan, former speechwriter Senior Advisor to President Nixon from Virginia
George H.W. Bush, President of the United States from Texas
David Duke, State Representative from Louisiana
Harold E. Stassen, former Governor of Minnesota and candidate for the 1944, 1948, 1952, 1964, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 nominations from Pennsylvania

Conservative journalist Pat Buchanan was the primary opponent of President Bush. However, Buchanan's best showing was in the New Hampshire primary on 2/18/1992 - where Bush won by a 53-38% margin

. President Bush won 73% of all primary votes, with 9,199,463 votes. Buchanan won 2,899,488 votes; unpledged delegates won 287,383 votes, and Duke won 119,115 votes. Just over 100,000 votes were cast for all other candidates, half of which were write-in votes for H. Ross Perot
President George H. W. Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle easily won renomination by the Republican Party. However, the success of the conservative opposition forced the moderate Bush to move further to the right than in 1988, and to incorporate many socially conservative planks in the party platform. Bush allowed Buchanan to give the keynote address at the Republican National Convention in Houston, and his culture war speech alienated many moderates. David Duke also entered the Republican primary, but performed poorly at the polls.
With intense pressure on the Buchanan delegates to relent, the tally for president went as follows:

George H.W. Bush 2166

Patrick J. Buchanan 18

former ambassador Alan Keyes 1 Vice President Dan Quayle was renominated by voice vote.
1992 election was the last with Stassen as a candidate. Image:Pat Buchanan.jpg|former speechwriter and Senior Advisor to President Nixon Pat Buchanan of Virginia Image:George H. W. Bush, President of the United States, 1989 official portrait.jpg|President George Bush of Texas Image:Rsz davidduke.jpg|State Representative David Duke of Louisiana Image:Harold E. Stassen.jpg|former Governor Harold Stassen of Minnesota

Democratic Party nomination

See also: 1992 Democratic presidential primary, 1992 Democratic National Convention In 1991, President Bush had high popularity ratings in the wake of the Gulf War. Many well-known Democrats considered the race unwinnable and didn't run for the nomination. Those that did run included several less-well-known candidates. Some of the potential candidates who didn't run included:

House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt of Missouri

Governor Mario Cuomo of New York

Representative Pat Schroeder of Colorado

Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas

Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey

Senator Al Gore of Tennessee

Reverend Jesse Jackson of Illinois

former Senator George McGovern of South Dakota

Representative Dave McCurdy of Oklahoma

Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia

Senator Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia

Senator Dale Bumpers of Arkansas
Image:Larry_Agran.jpg|Former Mayor Larry Agran of Irvine, California Image:E brownjr.jpg|Former Governor Jerry Brown of California Image:RobertPatrickCasey.jpg|Governor Robert P. Casey of Pennsylvania Image:Bill Clinton.jpg|Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas Image:Tom Harkin official portrait.jpg|Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa Image:Bob kerrey.jpg|Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska Image:EugeneMcCarthy.jpg|Former Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota Image:Senator_Paul_Tsongas.jpg|Former Senator Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts Image:Douglas Wilder 2003 NIH.jpg|Governor Douglas Wilder of Virginia Image:Charles_Woods.jpg|Millionaire Businessman Charles Woods of Alabama

Overview

Clinton, a Southerner with experience governing a more conservative state, positioned himself as a centrist New Democrat. He prepared for a run in 1992 amidst a crowded field seeking to beat the incumbent President George H. W. Bush. In the aftermath of the Persian Gulf War, Bush seemed unbeatable but a small economic recession spurred Democrats on. Tom Harkin won his native Iowa without much surprise. Clinton, meanwhile, was still a relatively unknown national candidate before the primary season when a woman named Gennifer Flowers appeared in the press to reveal allegations of an affair. Clinton sought damage control by appearing on 60 Minutes with his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton, for an interview with Steve Kroft. Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts won the primary in neighboring New Hampshire but Clinton's second place finish - strengthened by Clinton's speech labeling himself "The Comeback Kid" - re-energized his campaign. Clinton swept nearly all of the Super Tuesday primaries, making him the solid front runner. Jerry Brown, however, began to run a surprising insurgent campaign, particularly through use of a 1-800 number to receive grassroots funding. Brown scored surprising wins in Connecticut and Colorado and seemed poised to overtake Clinton but a well-publicized misstep involving Brown's Vice-presidential advances towards Rev. Jesse Jackson, apparently unaware of Jackson's complicated relationship with Jewish-Americans, set Brown back and Clinton effectively won the Democratic Party's nomination after winning the New York Primary in early April.
The convention met in New York City, and the official tally was:

Bill Clinton 3372

Jerry Brown 596

Paul Tsongas 289

Penn. Gov. Robert P. Casey 10

Rep. Pat Schroeder 5

Larry Agran 3

Al Gore 1 Clinton chose U.S. Senator Albert A. Gore Jr. (D-Tennessee) to be his running mate on July 9 1992. Choosing Gore, who is from Clinton's neighboring state of Tennessee, went against the popular strategy of balancing a Southern candidate with a Northern partner. Gore did serve to balance the ticket in other ways, as he was perceived as strong on family values and environmental issues, while Clinton was not. Also, Gore's similarities to Clinton allowed him to push strongly some of his key campaign themes, such as centrism and generational change.
   The Democratic Convention in New York City was essentially a solidification of the party around Clinton and Gore, though there was controversy over whether Jerry Brown would be allowed to speak. Brown did indeed speak and ultimately endorsed the Clinton campaign.
   Before Gore's selection, other politicians were mentioned as a possible running-mate, for example Bob Kerrey, Dick Gephardt, Mario Cuomo, Indiana Representative Lee H. Hamilton, Pennsylvania Senator Harris Wofford, Florida Senator Bob Graham, and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry.
   Another additional controversy concerned Pennsylvania Governor Bob Casey, who sought a speaking slot at the convention but wasn't granted one. Casey complained that it was because of his outspoken pro-life views: he'd warned the platform committee that Democrats were committing "suicide" because they didn't support restrictions on abortion. Clinton supporters have said that Casey wasn't allowed to speak because he hadn't endorsed the ticket.

Perot candidacy

The public's unease about the federal budget deficit and fears of professional politicians allowed the independent candidacy of billionaire Texan Ross Perot to explode on the scene in dramatic fashion - at one point Perot was the leader in the polls. Perot crusaded against the national debt, tapping into voter's potential fear of the deficit. His volunteers succeeded in collecting enough signatures to get his name on the ballot in all 50 states. In June, Perot led the national public opinion polls with support from 39% of the voters (versus 31% for Bush and 25% for Clinton).. As Governor Clinton's acceptance speech approached, Ross Perot dropped out of the race, being convinced that with a "revitalized Democratic Party," staying in the race would cause the race to be decided by the U.S House of Representatives. Clinton gave his acceptance on July 17, 1992, promising to bring a "new convenant" to America, and to work to heal the perceived gap that had developed between the rich and the poor during the Reagan/Bush years. The Clinton campaign received the biggest convention "bounce" in history which brought him from 25 percent in the spring behind Bush and Perot up to 55 percent to Bush's 31 percent.
After the convention, Clinton and Gore began a bus tour around the United States, while the Bush/Quayle campaign, in panic mode began to hammer at Clinton's character, in light of accusations of infidelity and dodging the draft. The Bush campaign emphasized its foreign policy successes such as Desert Storm, and the end of the Cold War. Bush also contrasted his military service to Clinton's lack thereof, and criticized his lack of foreign policy expertise. However, as the economy was the main issue, Bush's campaign floundered across the nation, even in Republican bastions, and Clinton maintained leads with over 50 percent of the vote nationwide consistently, while Bush typically saw numbers in the upper 30s. As Bush's economic edge had evaporated, his campaign looked to energize its socially conservative base at the 1992 Republican National Convention in Houston, Texas. At the Convention, Bush's primary campaign opponent Pat Buchanan gave his famous "culture war" speech, hammering at Clinton and Gore's social progressiveness, and voicing skepticism on his "New Democrat" brand. After President Bush accepted his renomination, his campaign saw a small bounce in the polls, but this was short lived, as Clinton maintained his lead. The campaign continued with a lopsided lead for Clinton through September, until Ross Perot decided to re-enter the race Ross Perot's re-entry in the race was welcome by the Bush campaign, as Fred Steeper, a poll taker for Bush, said, "He'll be important if we accomplish our goal, which is to draw even with Clinton." Initially, Perot's return saw the Texas billionaire's numbers stay low, until he was given the opportunity to participate in two unprecedented three man debates. The race narrowed, as Perot's number's significantly improved as Clinton's number's declined, while Bush's numbers remained more or less the same from earlier in the race as Perot and Bush began to hammer at Clinton on character issues once again.

Character issues

Many character issues were raised during the campaign, including allegations that Clinton had dodged the draft during the Vietnam War, and had used marijuana, which Clinton claimed he'd pretended to smoke, but "didn't inhale." Bush also accused Clinton of meeting with communists on a trip to Russia he took as a student. Clinton was oft accused of being a philanderer by political opponents.
Allegations were also made that George H. W. Bush had engaged in a long-term extramarital affair with Jennifer Fitzgerald, who had been his secretary throughout the 1970s. Bush denied ever having an affair with Fitzgerald.

Results

On November 3, Bill Clinton won election as the 42nd President of the United States by a wide margin in the U.S. Electoral College, receiving 43 percent of the popular vote in the three man race against Bush's 37 percent. It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the White House with under 50 percent of the popular vote. The state of Arkansas was the only state in the entire country that gave the majority of its vote to a single candidate; the rest were won by pluralities of the vote.
   Independent candidate Ross Perot received 19,741,065 popular votes for President. The billionaire used his own money to advertise extensively, and is the only third-party candidate ever allowed into the nationally televised presidential debates with both major party candidates (Independent John Anderson debated Republican Ronald Reagan in 1980, but without Democrat Jimmy Carter who had refused to appear in a three-man debate). Speaking about the North American Free Trade Agreement, Perot described its effect on American jobs as causing a "giant sucking sound." Perot was ahead in the polls for a period of almost two months - a feat not accomplished by an independent candidate in almost 100 years. Perot lost much of his support when he temporarily withdrew from the election, only to declare himself a candidate again soon after.
   Perot's almost 19% of the popular vote made him the most successful third-party presidential candidate in terms of popular vote since Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 election. Also, Ross Perot's 19% of the popular vote was the highest ever percent of the popular vote for a candidate who didn't win any electoral votes. Exit polling indicated that Perot voters would have split their votes fairly evenly between Clinton and Bush had Perot not been in the race , and an analysis by FairVote - Center for Voting and Democracy suggested that, while Bush would have won more electoral votes with Perot out of the race, he wouldn't have gained enough to reverse Clinton's victory. Clinton also led Bush in all polls after the Democratic Convention after Ross Perot's initial exit in two way races, and never lost the lead for the rest of the campaign.
   Although he didn't win any states, Perot managed to finish ahead of one of the two major party candidates in two states: In Maine, Perot received 30.44% of the vote to Bush's 30.39% (Clinton won Maine with 38.77%); in Utah, Perot received 27.34% of the vote to Clinton's 24.65% (Bush won Utah with 43.36%).

Analysis

Several factors made the results possible. First, the campaign came on the heels of the recession of 1990-91. While in historical terms the recession was mild and actually ended before the election, the resulting job losses (especially among middle managers not yet accustomed to white collar downsizing) fueled strong discontent with Bush, who was successfully portrayed as aloof, out of touch, and overly focused on foreign affairs. Highly telegenic, Clinton was perceived as sympathetic, concerned, and more in touch with ordinary families.
   Second was the decision by Bush to accept a tax increase. Pressured by rising budget deficits, increased demand for entitlement spending and reduced tax revenues (each a consequence of the recession) Bush agreed to a budget compromise with Congress (where rival Democrats held the majority). Not having been in Congress at the time, Clinton was able to condemn the tax increase effectively on both its own merits and as a reflection of Bush's honesty. Effective Democratic TV ads were aired showing a clip of Bush's infamous 1988 campaign speech in which he promised "" In a semantic irony, President Bush didn't add new taxes, only increasing existing taxes, but the implied meaning was clear, as he'd explicitly stated in the speech, "My opponent won't rule out raising taxes. But I will. The Congress will push me to raise taxes and I'll say no."
   Most importantly, Bush's coalition was in disarray, for both the aforementioned reasons and for unrelated reasons. The end of the Cold War allowed old rivalries among conservatives to re-emerge and meant that other voters focused more on domestic policy, to the detriment of Bush, a social and fiscal moderate. The consequence of such a perception depressed conservative turnout. Unlike Bush, Clinton was able to unite his party behind his candidacy. Despite a fractious and ideologically diverse party, Clinton was able to court all wings of the Democratic party successfully, even where they conflicted. To garner the support of moderates and conservative Democrats, he attacked Sister Souljah, a little-known rap musician whose lyrics Clinton condemned. Clinton could also point to his liberal record as Governor of Arkansas. More liberal Democrats were impressed by Clinton's academic credentials, 60's-era protest record, and support for social causes such as a woman's right to abortion. Supporters remained energized and confident, even in times of scandal or missteps.
   The effect of Ross Perot's candidacy has been a contentious point of debate for many years. In the ensuing months after the election, various Republicans asserted that Perot had acted as a spoiler, enough to the detriment of Bush to lose him the election. While many disaffected conservatives did vote for Ross Perot to protest Bush's tax increase, further examination of the Perot vote in the Election Night exit polls not only showed that Perot siphoned votes equally among Clinton, Bush, and those staying home if Perot hadn't been a candidate, but of the voters who cited Bush's broken "No New Taxes" pledge as "very important," two thirds voted for Bill Clinton. . He also appealed to disaffected voters all across the political spectrum who had grown weary of the two-party system. NAFTA played a role in Perot's support, and Perot voters were relatively moderate on hot button social issues.
   Clinton, Bush and Perot didn't focus on abortion during the campaign. Exit polls, however, showed that attitudes toward abortion "significantly influenced" the vote, as pro-choice Republicans defected from Bush.

Implications

Clinton's election ended an era in which the Republican Party had controlled the White House for 12 consecutive years, and for 20 of the previous 24 years. That election also brought the Democrats full control of the political branches of the federal government, including both houses of U.S. Congress as well as the presidency, for the first time since the administration of the last Democratic president, Jimmy Carter. This wouldn't last for very long however, as the Republicans won control of both the House and Senate in 1994. Clinton meanwhile, would become the first Democratic President since FDR to serve two full terms in the White House.

Detailed Results

Source (Popular Vote):
Source (Electoral Vote):

Close states

Georgia, 0.59%

North Carolina, 0.79%

New Hampshire, 1.22%

Ohio, 1.83%

Florida, 1.89%

Arizona, 1.95%

New Jersey, 2.37%

Montana, 2.51%

Nevada, 2.63%

Kentucky, 3.21%

Texas, 3.48%

South Dakota, 3.52%

Colorado, 4.26%

Wisconsin, 4.35%

Virginia, 4.38%

Louisiana, 4.61%

Tennessee, 4.65%

Voter demographics

THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IN SOCIAL GROUPS (IN PERCENTAGES)
% of 1992 total vote		3-party vote
		1992			1996
	Social group	Clinton	Bush	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
	Total vote	43	37	19	49	41	8
	Party and ideology
2	Liberal Republicans	17	54	30	44	48	9
13	Moderate Republicans	15	63	21	20	72	7
21	Conservative Republicans	5	82	13	6	88	5
4	Liberal Independents	54	17	30	58	15	18
15	Moderate Independents	43	28	30	50	30	17
7	Conservative Independents	17	53	30	19	60	19
13	Liberal Democrats	85	5	11	89	5	4
20	Moderate Democrats	76	9	15	84	10	5
6	Conservative Democrats	61	23	16	69	23	7
	Gender and marital status
33	Married men	38	42	21	40	48	10
33	Married women	41	40	19	48	43	7
15	Unmarried men	48	29	22	49	35	12
20	Unmarried women	53	31	15	62	28	7
	Race
83	White	39	40	20	43	46	9
10	Black	83	10	7	84	12	4
5	Hispanic	61	25	14	72	21	6
1	Asian	31	55	15	43	48	8
	Religion
46	White Protestant	33	47	21	36	53	10
29	Catholic	44	35	20	53	37	9
3	Jewish	80	11	9	78	16	3
17	Born Again, religious right	23	61	15	26	65	8
	Age
17	18–29 years old	43	34	22	53	34	10
33	30–44 years old	41	38	21	48	41	9
26	45–59 years old	41	40	19	48	41	9
24	60 and older	50	38	12	48	44	7
	Education
6	Not a high school graduate	54	28	18	59	28	11
24	High school graduate	43	36	21	51	35	13
27	Some college education	41	37	21	48	40	10
26	College graduate	39	41	20	44	46	8
17	Post graduate education	50	36	14	52	40	5
	Family income
11	Under $15,000	58	23	19	59	28	11
23	$15,000–$29,999	45	35	20	53	36	9
27	$30,000–$49,999	41	38	21	48	40	10
39	Over $50,000	39	44	17	44	48	7
18	Over $75,000	36	48	16	41	51	7
9	Over $100,000	—	—	—	38	54	6
	Region
23	East	47	35	18	55	34	9
26	Midwest	42	37	21	48	41	10
30	South	41	43	16	46	46	7
20	West	43	34	23	48	40	8
	Community size
10	Population over 500,000	58	28	13	68	25	6
21	Population 50,000 to 500,000	50	33	16	50	39	8
39	Suburbs	41	39	21	47	42	8
30	Rural areas, towns	39	40	20	45	44	10

Source: Voter News Service exit poll, reported in The New York Times, November 10, 1996, 28.

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